Market Volatility Guide: Value Investor's Weekly Update

1. Market Dips Are Noise: S&P 500 (-0.33%), Dow (-0.63%), Nasdaq (-0.22%) fell due to tariffs, but long-term value matters most.

2. Fed and Tech Stay Firm: Rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%; Apple, Microsoft Q2 earnings show strength.

3. Focus on Fundamentals: Ignore swings, target businesses with steady cash flows.

4. June CPI Meets Expectations: CPI up 0.3% MoM, 2.7% YoY; core CPI +0.2% MoM, +2.9% YoY; jobs, confidence data next.

5. Seek Strong Companies: Look for businesses with solid finances; market dips may reveal undervalued opportunities.

Welcome!

Welcome to the Tuesday, July 15, 2025 issue of The Value Investor. I'm here to help you cut through all the market noise and focus on what really matters for long-term investors. Just like Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger, I believe in finding a company's true worth instead of worrying about daily price swings. Let's look back at last week and see what's coming up next.

Market Overview: Another Bumpy Week

Last week gave us another roller coaster ride. The S&P 500 dropped 0.33% to close at 6,259.75, while the Dow Jones fell 0.63% to 44,371.51. The Nasdaq had a smaller dip of 0.22%, ending at 20,585.53 on July 11, 2025. Markets around the world felt shaky too, especially in Europe and Asia, because of trade concerns.

What stirred things up? President Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports and threatened a 35% tariff on Canada. This kind of news always makes investors nervous in the short term. But here's the thing: as value investors, we see these dips as just background noise. What matters is finding companies with rock-solid foundations.

Key Events: Fed Stays Put, Tech Companies Shine

The Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates right where they are, between 4.25% and 4.50%. They're worried that tariffs might push prices higher, so they want to stay careful. Fed officials said the economy looks solid, but they're not ready to cut rates just yet.

Meanwhile, some of our favorite tech giants showed us why we love strong companies. Apple's sales jumped 8% thanks to people buying lots of iPhones. Microsoft's Azure cloud business grew an impressive 25%. These results prove something important: when you own great companies, they can thrive even when markets get wobbly.

My Take: Stick to What Works

As a value investor, I don't lose sleep over daily market moves or try to guess what the Fed will do next. Last week's drops? They're just a blip on the radar. Companies like Apple and Microsoft show us exactly what we want to see: businesses that generate steady cash flow and can handle whatever gets thrown at them.

The Fed keeping rates steady actually tells us the economy is in decent shape. This creates perfect conditions for finding companies that are trading below their real value. While other investors panic over headlines, we stay focused on the long game.

What's Coming Up: Data and Trade Talks

Today's CPI data came in pretty much as expected. Prices rose 0.3% from May and 2.7% from last year. Core CPI (which doesn't include food and energy) went up 0.2% monthly and 2.9% yearly, slightly below what economists predicted.

This Thursday, July 17, we'll get new unemployment and job growth numbers. Friday brings consumer confidence data. The ongoing U.S.-China trade talks could move markets too. Good news might calm things down, but any problems could stir up more volatility.

Remember, this data gives us clues about the economy, but it shouldn't make us rush into quick decisions.

Where I See Opportunities

With markets bouncing around like this, it's actually a great time to hunt for solid businesses. I'm looking for companies that keep making money no matter what's happening in the world. These are the businesses that weather any storm.

If trade talks go badly or economic news scares other investors, we might find some really good companies selling at discount prices. The secret is picking businesses with strong balance sheets and steady cash flow, even when times get tough.

My Final Thoughts

This week's big lesson is simple: stick to the basics and ignore the market's mood swings. Warren Buffett put it perfectly when he said, “The stock market moves money from the impatient to the patient.“ Keep looking for strong companies at fair prices, and you'll do well over time.

Got questions about value investing or want to discuss a specific company? I'd love to hear from you. And if this newsletter helps you think about investing differently, please share it with your friends. The more people who understand value investing, the better!

Until next week, stay patient and keep your eyes on the long term.

Happy investing!
Josh

The information is provided for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or recommendation and should not be considered as such. Do your own research.